For TV land, a big dose of reality ???
Late-night talk shows will likely go dark. Sitcoms and dramas will halt production. Reality shows and newsmagazines will flood the prime time schedule. In short, TV could change dramatically in coming months if members of the Writers Guild of America go on a prolonged strike.
At a press conference in Los Angeles yesterday afternoon, the union, which represents about 12,000 TV and film writers, said its members would stop work, effective Monday. That would be the union's first strike in 19 years, though a last-minute deal over the weekend could halt picketing plans. The dispute centers largely on movies and TV shows posted on the Internet, as well as on revenue from DVD sales.
Writers want a bigger share of the proceeds, which they say would fairly compensate them for their intellectual property. The Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers, which represents networks and TV and movie studios, says the economics of such programming on the Internet and other platforms are in flux, making it hard to tell how much revenue there will be. Studios also say the industry faces rising costs and piracy threats.
If a strike persists, it could have a trickle-down effect on TV viewership as a whole. Some industry observers said a strike could permanently draw more eyeballs away from scripted shows - and network TV in general - at a time when audiences are already dwindling.
"If it's a long and acrimonoious strike, then the landscape of television will change," said Clyde Phillips, a longtime TV writer and producer who now runs the Showtime series "Dexter."
When writers went on strike for five months in 1988, networks compensated by premiering some of the earliest reality shows - though Phillips points out that viewers rebelled when networks programmed reality and game shows too excessively.
The last strike also altered the role of newsmagazines, which were called on to fill vast holes in prime time schedules, and became steadily flashier and more dramatic, said Robert Thompson, director of Syracuse University's Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture.
This time, Thompson said, a beneficiary of the strike could be cable TV, whose vast universe of programming didn't exist two decades ago.
"If you're hooked up to a good cable package or satellite TV, there is hundreds and thousands of hours of stuff that you have never seen before," Thompson said. "That's of course bad news for the networks, because if you discover new cable channels and like them during the strike, they may become part of your regular channel-surfing regimen."
The Internet has also been a growing source of original content that competes with TV, from the homegrown videos that surface on YouTube to made-for-the-Internet productions such as last spring's "Prom Queen," a series of 90-second episodes produced by entertainment mogul Michael Eisner. Still, Thompson doubts that viewers will turn to original Internet content in place of TV shows.
"People go to YouTube during work when they can get away with it," he said. "During prime time at home, a cat eating with a fork is not going to be what they turn to."
But the strike underscores the growing importance the Internet holds for TV networks. Most networks now post episodes of TV shows online. But while writers get residual fees for reruns that air on TV, networks consider online episodes "promotional" and don't compensate writers for them.
Networks also tap writers for blogs, short episodes, and other online content related to their shows, for which writers want to be covered by union benefits.
TV writers, who once negotiated away their rights to a sizable share of revenue from videotapes and DVDs, say the strike represents a chance to correct a past mistake.
"We didn't fight hard enough and we've been suffering for it ever since," Phillips said. "Some members have been angry for all these years."
The immediate effects of the strike will vary. Movie studios have stockpiled scripts, and could see little effect if negotiations move quickly.
But on TV, late-night talk shows, which feed off current events, will have trouble producing new shows, though they could use interviews in place of comedy sketches. Jon Stewart, host of Comedy Central's "The Daily Show," said on Thursday night's show that he would likely go off the air in the event of a strike.
Daytime soap operas, meanwhile, are filmed about a month in advance, so new episodes will likely run out in December.
But viewers of primetime comedies and dramas, whose production begins in the summer, probably won't notice a change until January or early February. Networks have many new episodes in the can - in some cases, half a season's worth - and December is traditionally stocked with reruns anyway.
Because the strike has been anticipated for months, networks have also stockpiled episodes of midseason replacement shows, as well as reality series. A CBS spokesman said his network has another installment of "Survivor" in production, plans to bring back the Drew Carey-hosted game show "Power of 10," and could easily start production on "Big Brother."
The CW, meanwhile, is ready with the reality show "Pussycat Dolls: Girlicious," as well as a mother-daughter beauty competition called "Crowned" and a dating show called "Farmer Wants a Wife."
The shortened season could also pose a challenge to this fall's new shows, many of which are struggling to build a loyal fan base. And it has already put the kibosh on at least one anticipated new drama. NBC has shelved production on a six-episode spinoff of "Heroes," called "Origins."
