Petraeus Leaves Large Questions Unanswered

By Michael Abramowitz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, September 10, 2007; 5:20 PM

The long-awaited testimony this afternoon of Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, once seen as a potential turning point in war policy, seemed more like an exercise of kicking the can down the road.

Appearing before two House committees, Petraeus confirmed that 30,000 U.S. troops could be withdrawn from Iraq by the middle of next summer, but that was hardly unexpected: Officials have been forecasting for months that the so-called surge would have to end no later than April 2008 or there would be unacceptable strains on the American military.

But Petraeus left the larger questions -- what will be the future size and mission of the American "footprint" in Iraq -- unanswered. He offered hints that the reductions might continue beyond next summer but said he would not be able to offer a definitive judgment until March.

"Our experience in Iraq has repeatedly shown that projecting too far into the future is not just difficult, it can be misleading and even hazardous," Petraeus testified.

Crocker, sketching out the political side of the equation, offered a similar message, pleading for patience and saying it is still possible for the United States to realize its goals in Iraq.

"In my judgment," he said, "the cumulative trajectory of political, economic and diplomatic developments in Iraq is upwards, although the slope of that line is not steep."

Whether Petraeus and Crocker will be given more time to try to make their strategy work is not completely known. Judging from the sharply critical opening statements from the Democratic chairmen of the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees, administration hopes of putting its Iraq policy on a bipartisan basis seemed faint. Even before he heard from Petraeus and Crocker, Rep. Tom Lantos (D-Calif.) said he was not buying the idea that "victory is at hand."

But as President Bush has shown all year, the Democrats do not have the power to bring the war to a halt, and there was nothing in the opening testimony from either of the star witnesses that seemed likely to shake the strong support the administration has enjoyed so far from congressional Republicans. That would suggest Bush will continue to have a free hand on Iraq for the foreseeable future.

Bush has been counting on Petraeus and Crocker to provide some of the credibility on Iraq policy that the president has lacked in recent years. Indeed, they seemed to offer considerable material for Bush to use when he addresses the nation this week on how he intends to pursue the war.

Petraeus spoke at length of military successes in reducing ethno-sectarian violence, disrupting Shiite military extremists and dealing "significant blows" to al-Qaeda in Iraq. He also spoke positively of the improvements in the Iraqi Security Forces -- certainly more optimistically than independent analysts have in recent weeks.

Petraeus showed a little leg in talking about the possibility of more troop reductions down the road, even as he remained unwilling to commit to them this afternoon. He presented a briefing slide that suggested deeper cuts might be considered after next summer. White House officials have long promised that the administration would begin sketching an "over the horizon" perspective for the American people -- if only to keep support for the war from eroding further -- and Petraeus seemed to provide that.

Crocker, for his part, spoke only briefly of the failure of the Iraqi government to meet the political and security goals set by Congress. At one point the White House had talked expansively about how the "surge" would give the government the "breathing space" to meet the benchmarks; now that the benchmarks are not being met, the ambassador focused on other signs of political progress, such as how former insurgents are joining Iraq's military.

"I do believe that Iraq's leaders have the will to tackle the country's pressing problems, although it will take longer than we originally anticipated because of the environment and the gravity of the issues before them," Crocker testified.

The optimistic picture of Iraq presented by Petraeus and Crocker certainly will be challenged by Democrats and independent experts in the days ahead. In his opening remarks, the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), threw Petraeus's words in his face when he voiced skepticism that the Iraqis were capable of making the compromises necessary for political progress.

In a letter to his troops last week, Petraeus used a football analogy in speaking of how the United States had the ball and was moving down the field. Skelton used a different metaphor: "While our troops are holding back the opposing team to let them make a touchdown, the Iraqis haven't even picked up the ball."

The question now is which analogy will be most convincing to Congress and the American public.